This year the drafting felt harder - because the world is more chaotic, the range of possible outcomes has widened considerably. The biggest leadership mistake I see right now is confusing unpredictability with powerlessness. When scenarios multiply, the temptation is to hedge everywhere, delay decisions, and react to noise. That feels prudent. In practice, it's often costly.

As 2025 closed, I found myself reflecting on what has shifted—and what has hardened—over the past twelve months. As we enter 2026, like so many others, I’ve been working on  my annual State of the World  assessment which I’ll have out in the coming weeks. An early teaser – greater volatility, more widely diverging scenarios, and the behaviours leaders will need to navigate them. Meanwhile, here are the signals from December that feel particularly telling.   What I’ve Learned