My response to the volatility that has marked the opening weeks of 2026 has been to be slow and steady. That is deliberate. In my recent paper, State of the World 2026: Leadership When Outcomes Widen, I argue that as the range of plausible outcomes expands, leaders face a heightened risk of over-reacting

This year the drafting felt harder - because the world is more chaotic, the range of possible outcomes has widened considerably. The biggest leadership mistake I see right now is confusing unpredictability with powerlessness. When scenarios multiply, the temptation is to hedge everywhere, delay decisions, and react to noise. That feels prudent. In practice, it's often costly.

As 2025 closed, I found myself reflecting on what has shifted—and what has hardened—over the past twelve months. As we enter 2026, like so many others, I’ve been working on  my annual State of the World  assessment which I’ll have out in the coming weeks. An early teaser – greater volatility, more widely diverging scenarios, and the behaviours leaders will need to navigate them. Meanwhile, here are the signals from December that feel particularly telling.   What I’ve Learned

My brain is changing.  As many of you know, about seven years ago, in my mid-40s, I had breast cancer. Six months later, after several rounds of chemo and radiotherapy, I am clear. The only overt reminder is the pill I take every morning. But there’s another reminder that I notice now and again, and that is that my brain feels different.  About a year after my treatment, I saw my surgeon and explained that I felt like I’d lost about 30% of my brain power. I switched medicatio