JUNE 2026 INSIGHTS

Gold has just displaced US Treasuries as the world's top reserve asset. That one data point is worth sitting with — and it wasn't the only signal this month that suggested something structural is shifting beneath the noise.

What I've learned about the context

• According to Linda Bilmes at Harvard’s Kennedy School, the funding pattern of US military conflicts in Iraq, Afghanistan and the wider region is unprecedented. "For the first time since the American Revolutionary War, costs were paid for almost entirely by debt." (FT)

• In 1975, roughly 83% of the assets on the books of Fortune 500 companies were tangible. Today that ratio has inverted: approximately 90% of corporate value now resides in intangible assets — software, data, brands, relationships, intellectual property, and organisational capabilities. (Rita McGrath, HBR)

• Gold has replaced US Treasuries as the world's top reserve asset. By the end of last year, bullion accounted for 27% of all global central bank reserves, up from 20% in 2024. Treasuries fell from 25% to 22% over the same period. (European Central Bank)

• Biotech is becoming the next US–China battleground. US pharmaceutical companies are increasingly turning to Chinese biotech firms for drug discovery ahead of major patent expiries. US lawmakers are warning that America risks becoming dependent on Chinese innovation in the same way it became reliant on China for critical minerals. (FT)

• Ukraine has achieved numerical drone superiority at the tactical level, now fielding 1.3 strike drones for every Russian one. In year one of the war, Ukraine produced 200 drones; last year, they produced 7 million small air drones alone. It is now prosecuting a sustained campaign against targets more than 1,000 kilometres behind Russian lines — an ability unlocked by domestically produced long-range strike drones and cruise missiles. Meanwhile, the US Army is acquiring only 50,000. (ISW / Foreign Affairs)

• Putin has allocated nearly 40% of Russia's federal budget — approximately $238 billion — to defence and security this year. According to a recently leaked warning from the Russian finance ministry, war spending is on track to overshoot by at least $28 billion in 2026. (Mike Froman, CFR)

• Russia's sovereign debt stands at 19% of GDP, against 126% for the US, 104% for the UK, and 65% for Germany, suggesting significant fiscal headroom remaining. (IMF World Economic Outlook Database, 2025)

• Given the pace of China's population decline — its workforce is projected to fall from 1 billion to 300 million by the end of the century — Beijing sees AI-enabled machines as a way out of the demographic trap. Last year China installed more industrial robots than the rest of the world combined. (FT)

• India is building one airport a month. (In conversation)

• A single gigawatt of data centre capacity costs tens of billions of dollars to build and can consume power comparable to a nuclear reactor's output. Meta alone plans to build hundreds of gigawatts of AI infrastructure over the next decade. (FT)

What I've learned about people

• The demographic groups with the most negative views of AI in the US are voters aged 18–34 (net favourability rating: -44) and women aged 18–49 (-41). The two groups with the most positive views are men over 50 (+2) and upper-class voters (+2). (NBC News)

• In the US, roughly half of Gen Z reported using generative AI at least once a week. Of those, 31% said it made them feel angry — up from 22% last year. (Gallup / FT)

• "If you just sit and observe, you will see how restless your mind is. If you try to calm it, it only makes it worse, but over time it does calm, and when it does, there's room to hear more subtle things — that's when your intuition starts to blossom and you start to see things more clearly and be in the present more. Your mind just slows down, and you see a tremendous expanse in the moment. You see so much more than you could see before. It's a discipline; you have to practice it." — Steve Jobs (Walter Isaacson, Steve Jobs, p.49)

What I've learned about myself

• I got out for a run this month for the first time in 18 months. I'd forgotten what it does. Not the fitness — the silence. The closest thing to meditation I've found. I'd missed it more than I realised.

• How much of your stress is chosen? I've been asking myself that this month. More than I'd like to admit. When I caught it this month, as I felt genuinely frazzled in London, I stopped, centred, and the shift was immediate. Reframing from anxiety to calm isn't magic. But it requires noticing you have a choice in the first place.

• I've been questioning whether rigorous adherence to a methodology (as a coach in this case) makes me better at my craft — or just more compliant. The answer, I think, is that expertise held lightly serves people better than expertise held tightly. Technique in service of the person, not the other way around.

The most consequential shifts rarely announce themselves. They accumulate — in data, in conversations, in the quiet moments when you stop long enough to notice. I hope some of this is useful as you navigate yours.

Best wishes,

Xenia

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