MAY 2026

May was a quieter month — not least because I spent two weeks on the East Coast of the US. But quieter months have their own signals. Markets calm in the face of extraordinary human cost. China rewriting the clean energy story. And a personal question I've been sitting with about what it means to really show up.

What I've learned about the context

• Across eight major conflicts over the past five decades, the S&P 500 was often volatile around the outbreak of hostilities — but on average, one year after the onset of conflict, it was up 7%. Stock markets initially rose during the Second World War. (AllianceBernstein analysis).  (Gillian Tett, FT)

• The US mid-terms in November are attracting significant attention — but may matter less than assumed. Even if Democrats win a chamber, Trump will continue to govern by Executive Order, working around Congress and the judiciary. Legislation stalls; direction of travel doesn't change. (In conversation with a senior former republican official)

• An estimated 352,000 Russian soldiers have died in the war in Ukraine by the end of last year — more than six times the number of US troops killed during the Vietnam War. (Paul Sonne, NYT)

• In 2025, China installed three times as much wind power capacity as the rest of the world combined. Wind supplied 10% of China's electricity last year, a share growing by roughly one percentage point annually. All six of the world's largest wind turbine manufacturers are Chinese. (NYT)

• The sharp rebound in US equities since late March has been driven by an exceptionally narrow group of large tech stocks. UBS estimates the number of stocks meaningfully driving S&P 500 performance has fallen to a record low of 42 — against a historical norm closer to 100 — highlighting the concentration and underlying fragility of the rally. (FT)

• A related observation from a senior banker this month: markets are caught in a bind. Institutions feel compelled to invest in tech or risk losing ground to competitors — yet there is near-universal belief that tech stocks are currently overvalued and a correction is coming. Bonds offer neither security nor growth. Private markets remain the only credible alternative, but carry their own risks. The result: capital sitting in positions nobody believes in, waiting for a shock.

• In China, aggregate debt relative to GDP has now reached US levels, according to the Institute of International Finance. (Martin Wolf, FT)

What I've learned about people

• Falling healthy life expectancy is primarily about worsening young adult mental health. Physical health is stable or rising for all. (John Burn-Murdoch, FT)

• 'The job of an analyst is to turn up to each session without memory or desire.' — Wilfred Bion (psychoanalyst)

• Warmth + competence = charisma. (Vanessa Van Edwards)

What I've learned about myself

• I’ve spent my professional career as a ‘do-er’ and I’ve been rewarded for it. But, since becoming an executive coach I’ve come to realise the power of ‘be-ing’ – the power that bringing all of one’s presence into a room or conversation can have. This applies not just to coaching but far beyond it and opens up new levels of possibility. I've been emphasising one to the exclusion of the other. Now I’m working on both and when it works, it can be extraordinary. 

• A topic that has come up repeatedly in conversations this month: the power of silence and of space. The most effective people I've encountered sit in those things comfortably. I'm working on that.

Best regards,

Xenia

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