OCTOBER INSIGHTS

Power, data, and imbalance. This month I’ve been struck by how unevenly the benefits of technology and growth are distributed — between nations, between systems, and sometimes within ourselves.

From the rise of “embodied AI” in China to the deepening digital divide across the Global South, and from new thinking on growth to the psychology of loss and change — here are my October insights.

What I’ve learned about the context

• Friedrich Merz, Germany’s Chancellor, noted that regarding Russia, “we are not at war, but we are no longer at peace either.” This may not be either a hot or cold war as we know it. We need to think differently or we will be unprepared.

• American and Chinese companies now operate more than 90% of the world’s AI data centres (Oxford Uni study). India and Japan have at least five and four respectively. Africa and South America have almost none; more than 150 countries have zero. The global divide in digital infrastructure is becoming the next great inequality.

• Ireland offers a glimpse of this tension — data centres already consume over 20% of the country’s total electricity output. In the US, sources from McKinsey to the Department of Energy predict that data centre power could go from around 4% of power needs today to 12% in 2030.

• The impact on workers roles from AI is only slightly greater today than the arrival of the computer and internet were. (FT)

• Are we running the right AI race. China’s “embodied AI” surge is reshaping manufacturing. It installed 295,000 industrial robots in 2024 — more than the rest of the world combined — embedding AI in machine vision, predictive maintenance, and automation. Meanwhile, the US is focused on AGI. The question, as Mike Froman (CFR) puts it, is whether intelligence in the physical economy proves more transformative than the wisdom of a future Chat-GPT-15.

• In the US, the top 10% of earners now account for half of consumer spending, while the bottom 60% make up less than a fifth. (Nir Kaissar, Bloomberg)

• Corporate attention on climate change has surged. In 2014, 4,968 companies reported to the Carbon Disclosure Project; by 2024, more than 22,400 did. 48 of the world 50 largest asset managers now integrate MSCI’s ESG and climate data into their investment decisions (FT).

• The IEA forecasts that global renewable capacity will more than double by 2030, adding 4,600 gigawatts — roughly the combined power generation of China, the EU, and Japan. Solar will drive 80% of the increase.

• In Tibet’s high-altitude plateaus, China’s clean-energy revolution is tangible: solar fields covering an area x7 the size of Manhattan, wind farms along ridges, and hydropower linking thousands of kilometres of transmission lines. Qinghai province plans to quintuple its number of data centres, supporting this using energy through renewables that costs 40% less than through coal. This year, China has installed solar producing the equivalent power generation to the Three Gorges Dam every three weeks. (Keith Bradsher, FT).

• The 2025 Nobel Prize in Economics went to Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion, and Peter Howitt — scholars who reframed how we think about growth, moving towards the concept of ideas, innovation, technological progress, and institutional context as being the key drivers. Real growth comes from the intangible world – it’s not about how we build more, but how do we create and share ideas.  (FT, Daniel Susskind and This post from Brian Albrecht).

• Michael Beckley, in Foreign Affairs, describes today’s global order as a “stagnant club of aging incumbents,” surrounded by restless middle powers and failing states. If you want to gain a different perspective on how to see global trends, this is an important read. (Foreign Affairs).

What I’ve learned about people

• Loss aversion (Prospect Theory) — introduced by Kahneman and Tversky — explains why we fight harder to avoid loss than to pursue equivalent gain. It’s a useful lens for geopolitics and leadership alike: risk-taking shifts when the fear of decline outweighs the hope of progress. (A helpful lens for thinking about Putin’s actions).

• “Tricks and treachery are the practice of fools that have not wit enough to be honest.” (Benjamin Franklin)

• If there are no shared facts, we return to tribes — each convinced those outside are heretics. For more insights on The Seven Rules of Trust written by the founder of Wikipedia, Jimmy Wales, check out my podcast interview with him care of Open To Debate. Listen Here

• Jennifer Garvey Berger captures how our instincts can mislead us in complexity: “our human instincts, shaped for (and craving) a simple world, fundamentally mislead us in a complex, unpredictable world. It’s like having an old operating system for your computer that opened files when you tried to close them and deleted things when you tried to save them”. Our reflexes are often exactly wrong in complex systems. (Read her book, Unlocking Leadership Mindtraps, for more)

• “True creativity only emerges when we untether from certainty, embrace the terror of the unknown, and allow possibilities to unfold. Anxiety is the price we pay for freedom.” (Melissa Bernstein)

What I’ve learned about myself

• I am trying to learn to hold things more lightly — ideas, timing, agendas. When I grip tight, I am unable to ride the wave that is the context we operate in today. Much of what has served me well — precision, control, determination — can now hold me back if I don’t adapt. The world is shifting; my approach within it must, too.

October reminded me how power concentrates — in data, capital, and attention — and how easily the same can happen in ourselves. Growth, whether national or personal, depends less on what we hold and more on what we’re willing to release.

Xenia

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