MARCH 2026 | TRANSITION
- Wickett Advisory - Xenia Wickett
- Apr 11
- 3 min read
MARCH 2026 | TRANSITION
March has been a month of accumulation. Data points that individually are striking, but that together suggest something more structural: a world in transition — demographically, politically, economically, and climatically. And a parallel, personal recognition that transition is not just something that happens out there.
What follows are the signals that stood out.
What I've learned about the context
Demographics as destiny, continued.
Over the past two decades, the number of jobs among the over-fifties in rich economies has increased more than twice as much as for the under-fifties. (OECD data).
About two-thirds of the world's population live in countries with fertility rates below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman.
Democratic retreat. Between 2005-25, the proportion of the world's population living in autocracies has growth from 50% to 74%. The proportion living in true liberal democracies meanwhile has collapsed from 17% to 7%. (V-Dem Democracy Report 2026)
Military capabilities. In February, NATO officials warned that the UK was placed 31 out of 32 in terms of progress on capability requirements towards its 2025 targets. (The Times)
The US economy may be weaker than the headline suggests. The second reading of US Q4 GDP came in at 0.7%, revised down from 1.8% — itself a miss against the 2.4% forecast. Most of that 0.7% is attributable to AI-related capex, which implies the rest of the economy is effectively in contraction. (Thank you for noting this, @Bobby Vedral)
Energy risk. The recent oil price rise matches that immediately after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine (though the gas price rise is far smaller). (FT) The IEA’s Fatih Birol has noted that more oil came off markets all at once than in the 1973 and 1979 oil shocks combined.
Climate costs. The European Environment Agency estimates that economic losses tied to global warming reached €208 billion in the EU between 2021 and 2024 — 24 times greater than estimated climate losses in the 1980s and more than 10 times the level of the 2010–2019 period. (Bloomberg)
Meanwhile, studies by the European Central Bank and the Central Bank of Ireland have found that debt markets are increasingly charging issuers more based on their perceived ability to transition to a low-carbon economy. Climate risk is becoming credit risk. (Bloomberg)
What I've learned about people
“When you look at the data published every year, only one out of four employees are fully engaged with their companies. The amount of human capital that is lost in organisations is massive.' (Rita McGrath in conversation with Jose Marcilla, ED at Novartis)
You are not alone with Imposter Syndrome. A 2024 Korn Ferry report found that 71% of US CEOs and 65% of other senior executives experience symptoms of impostor syndrome. (Korn Ferry)
'When two men in business always agree, one of them is unnecessary.' — William Wrigley Jr.
'Nobody ever made a decision because of a number. They need a story.' — Daniel Kahneman
What I've learned about myself
I've been grouchy for weeks. I have two hypotheses, both of which may be true:
I'd forgotten to enjoy what I do – too caught up in what needs to be done. The change comes when I remember I have a choice as to how I spend my time (and more choice than most). When I choose, I do much the same things, but in the choosing, I find enjoyment again. Try it. It can be transformative.
I’m in transition. I’m shedding the skin of my old self to reveal a new one. It’s an uncomfortable process, a letting go. It’s uncertain as I’m not quite sure who I’m becoming. But it’s also growth and beautiful and exciting. That’s worth a lot.
Who do I want to be? When I was 18, I wanted to be the person people came to who would have the answers they sought. I’ve come to the realisation that this remains true but in a very different way. It’s no longer because I have the answers, but because I will ask the right questions that help them to find the answers themselves. The outcome in both…clarity. Amazing to realise that the what hasn’t changed, only the how.
Luck is the convergence of opportunity and action — we all pass by opportunities. I hope some of this is useful as you navigate yours.
Best regards,
Xenia
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