FEBRUARY 2026 | DIVERGENCE
- Wickett Advisory - Xenia Wickett
- 6 days ago
- 3 min read
February reinforced a theme that has been building for months: divergence.
Between institutions and individuals. Between fragility and resilience. Between those who lean into volatility and those who retreat from it.
At the geopolitical level, systems are more brittle. At the organisational level, leadership pipelines look thinner. At the personal level, responses to instability are increasingly split.
The question running through all of this: who adapts — and how?
What follows are the signals that stood out for me.
What I’ve learned about the context
CEO turnover continues to accelerate. Chief executive departures in the world’s largest listed companies hit a record for the second consecutive year in 2025 — up 16% on 2024 and 21% above the eight-year average tracked by Russell Reynolds. (FT)
US democratic backsliding is sharp — but structurally distinct. Across ten indicators of democratic erosion, the US has experienced the fastest episode of backsliding in the modern developed world. Yet, as John Burn-Murdoch notes in the FT, most deterioration reflects unilateral executive action and episodic shocks rather than durable institutional capture. That distinction matters. Fragility is not inevitable.
The tightening trap of debt. In six of the G7, national debt equals or exceeds annual GDP, according to the IMF. In the US, net interest payments now account for 15% of federal spending — second only to Social Security.
AI productivity gains are now appearing. US industries where workers report significant time savings from AI are seeing unusually strong productivity growth. Adoption is beginning to separate leaders from laggards. (FT)
China’s demographic drag deepens. China’s birth rate has fallen to its lowest level since 1949.
Foreign (to the US) talent. 44% of founders of US billion-dollar start-ups (1997–2019) were born outside the country, led by India, Israel, Canada, the UK and China (Stanford Business School study). At the same time, new research on 596 high-tech start-ups in India (2016–2023) shows purely domestic founding teams outperforming returnee entrepreneurs on funding, valuation and revenue. (ORF)
Climate risk in sovereign credit. A new analytical tool — Climate Vulnerability Signals — scores sovereigns on climate-related physical and transition risks (sensitivity to declining fossil fuel use and high clean tech costs). Of 119 countries assessed through 2050, 60 score high enough to suggest downgrade risk. (Bloomberg)
Concentration of consumption. The top 10% of US earners account for more than 50% of all consumer spending.
These are all isolated data points. However, together, they suggest widening dispersion.
What I’ve learned about people
Resistance is about loss, not logic. Resistance rises when perceived loss outweighs perceived opportunity. Treating it with curiosity rather than judgement turns it into valuable data that creates an opportunity for learning and change.
The managerial pipeline is weakening. Colleen Adler’s latest research at Gartner (via HBR) shows one in four managers would prefer not to be managers — up from one in five two years ago. Only 16% of HR leaders believe their selection processes identify the right people – most processes look backward at individual performance rather than forward towards leadership potential. (HBR)
Midlife is an unstable equilibrium. In many conversations with peers, I notice the loss of youthful optimism before the gain of later tranquillity. It is an uncomfortable in-between. Not decline. Transition.
Discomfort with uncertainty. In a context of instability, some people respond with apathy while it leads others to take agency and become entrepreneurs. It resembles a K-curve in human form. What is it that distinguishes those who choose each path?
This connects directly to my recent reflections on leadership when outcomes widen and on the gap between narrative and reputation. When stability erodes, self-narrative either contracts or expands. That choice shapes trajectory.
What I’ve learned about myself
Energy and gravitas are not opposites. I sometimes equate seriousness with gravitas. They are not the same. Gravitas and energy and laughter can coexist.
My body is keeping score. I realised recently that after cancer I unconsciously framed my body as having “failed” me. In so doing, I stopped listening to it and trusting it. That means I have wasted years of valuable insights. I’m only now relearning to hear the messages that it sends me, about myself but also about the environments I’m in. A work in progress.
Best regards,
Xenia
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