JANUARY 2026 | SLOW IS NOT PASSIVE

January 2026 | Slow is not passive

My response to the volatility that has marked the opening weeks of 2026 has been to be slow and steady.

That is deliberate. In my recent paper, State of the World 2026: Leadership When Outcomes Widen, I argue that as the range of plausible outcomes expands, leaders face a heightened risk of over-reacting — confusing motion with judgement, and speed with effectiveness. The paper starts from geopolitics, but it is really about behaviour: how uncertainty shapes decision-making, risk tolerance, and leadership judgement. If you haven’t read it, I recommend it.

January has therefore been a month of reflection as much as activity — alongside moderating a debate on Big Data (thank you, Open to Debate, Kenn Cukier and Carissa Vediz), and joining a panel at the Frontline Club on the breakdown of the international order.

What follows are the signals that stood out for me this month

What I’ve learned about the context

These data points lead to widening divergence — economic, political, and strategic — that leaders are still underestimating.

• By 2025, GDP per head had surpassed pre-pandemic levels in nearly 90% of high-income economies. In contrast, it remained below 2019 levels in more than 25% of emerging markets and 40% of low-income countries. Divergence, not recovery, is the defining feature of the global economy. (Martin Wolf, FT)

• The OECD estimates that in the late 1980s, skills had a shelf life of around 30 years. Today, that has fallen to less than two. AI is accelerating this trend. (Charlene Li has a great note on this).

• The advance — and retreat — of liberal democracy appears to track economic performance more closely than many are comfortable admitting. Growth does not automatically produce liberal democracy, but recent evidence suggests it may be necessary to sustain it. (John Burns-Murdock, FT)

• Directly replacing the US defence contribution to Europe would cost roughly $1tn, assuming one-off procurement costs and a 25-year lifecycle for equipment. In some areas, such as intelligence and space-based capabilities, filling the gap could take a decade or more. (@iiss)

• A Cold War document from the US, NSC-68, states, ‘ the grim oligarchy of the Kremlin… is seeking to demonstrate to the Free World that force and the will to use it on the side of the Kremlin…’. Sound familiar?

• UK consumer confidence has been negative or flat for 10 years, underlining the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, political upheaval and the cost of living crisis on Britons’ morale, @GfK Consumer Confidence Index

What I’ve learned about people

• For every attempt at behavioural change, there is resistance of equal force. Willpower addresses only half the equation; unless the underlying resistance is understood and worked with, the behaviour rarely changes for long. Thus, ignoring resistance does not eliminate it. Instead, you need to bring it out and address it directly. This dynamic applies not just to individuals, but to teams, and institutions.

What I’ve learned about myself

• I’m experimenting with working differently: less tension, more partnership with the work itself. Entering conversations relaxed rather than braced. Breathing before doing.

• I’m questioning the reflex to always be forward-leaning. What would it look like to sit in my space — to allow change to come from steadiness rather than strain? In a year where outcomes are widening, that may be the more durable approach.

I hope you’ve found some of this valuable. I always welcome your thoughts on this or on other insights you’ve had this month.

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Best regards,

Xenia

Wickett Advisory

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