AUGUST 2026 INSIGHTS

AUGUST 2026 INSIGHTS

"We are now faced with the fact that tomorrow is today. We are confronted with the fierce urgency of now." Martin Luther King Jr.'s words felt unusually apt this August — a quiet month on the surface, but underneath it, a world moving faster than most of us, and our institutions, which are trying to keep pace with it.

What I've learned about the context

• The priority order for AI adoption is shifting: resilience first, then sovereignty (continuity of operations), then efficiency. In Covid, organisations reversed a decades-long bias toward efficiency over resilience. AI is producing a similar reordering. (In conversation, CEO, Indian multinational)

• Chinese AI models account for 19 of the 25 most downloaded open-source systems on Hugging Face. According to a Private Equity leader (in conversation), 80% of their investment companies build their AI on Chinese platforms rather than American.

• The number of AI chips in data centres is expected to double every nine months — from 20 million today to 200 million by the end of 2028. The United States is home to around 5,500 data centres, roughly ten times the next closest country. (Epoch AI / NYT)

• Total investment required in AI infrastructure — servers, buildings, power equipment and grid — is estimated at around $10 trillion, of which approximately $5.3 trillion has been identified. The hyperscalers are expected to provide or guarantee most of it. (ONS, in conversation)

• A record $242bn of European green-aligned bonds were issued in the first half of 2026, according to the Climate Bonds Initiative. Total global issuance is on track to exceed the $673bn sold in 2024, the previous record year. (FT)

• Even if all pipelines planned are completed on time, by 2030, 5 of the 15 million barrels of oil a day that crossed the Strait of Hormuz before the war would still have to pass through it. (The Economist)

• China now accounts for roughly 30% of global industrial production. By 2030 it is expected to reach 45%, according to a 2024 UN report. Nearly 30% of Chinese industrial firms currently operate at a loss, up from 20% before Covid. (Mike Froman, Foreign Affairs)

• In the past ten years, America's overall debt burden has doubled. Debt held by the public now exceeds $32tn, roughly equal to the size of the US economy. The cost of servicing that debt now exceeds federal spending on national defence. (FT)

• US corporate profits have hit a record high while workers' share has sunk to historic lows. Pre-tax earnings hit an annualised $4.8tn in Q2 (18% of national income) – the highest share since the aftermath of the Second World War. Employees' share from wages and benefits fell to 60%, the lowest level since the 1950s. (FT)

• On 17 June, the G7 vowed to reduce reliance on a single non-G7 supplier of rare earths and permanent magnets to under 60% by 2030 and to 50% 'as soon as possible'. (Deutsche Bank Research Institute)

• Northern Sea Route voyages through the Arctic Circle: 15 in 2024, 23 in 2025. This month a Chinese company launched a regular weekly container service from Ningbo to Felixstowe — cutting the normal 40-day transit time by half. This is not a credible alternative today (volume, unpredictability, Russia relations and climate implications all limiting its efficacy) but for who knows how long. (FT)

What I've learned about people

• "Leadership is about getting people from where they are to where they have not been." — Henry Kissinger

• Christopher Clark's Sleepwalkers, an account of how Europe drifted into the First World War, feels oddly current. Consequential decisions, made by people who don't fully grasp what they're setting in motion. How do you know when the decision you're making now will turn out to be the consequential one?

What I've learned about myself

• As we age, we spend more time looking backwards than forwards. I don't want to do this.  

• Despite years of working on it, I still feel guilty when I slow down.

• I've been finding working with an AI tool when I'm triggered by an email very helpful. I send it my draft and comments and receive back a response focused on achieving my objective rather than salving my emotional upset. An area of growth for me is to learn to step outside my own emotions to find the rational response without its help.

This month I've felt as though I'm looking out of a train window. But instead of me being the one moving, I'm still and the world outside is not. There's a sense of being left behind. How much of this is truth, how much is context-dependent, and how much can I mitigate through action? Perhaps this is something I will need to learn to live with.

A quote from a conversation in July with a multinational CEO seems resonant - "Resilience eats prediction for breakfast." It's an idea I pick up in one of this month's blogs below.

Best regards,

Xenia

Wickett Advisory Sign up to my monthly newsletter here