JUNE 2025 INSIGHTS

Xenia Wickett - Executive Coach, Moderator, Geopolitical Advisor

June 2025 Insights

June flew by. Intense, energetic, and full of meaningful work. Some of you may have felt it too.

I had the chance to publish my TEDx talk on how to ask powerful questions—something that pushed me far outside my comfort zone (thank you to all who helped shape it). Alongside that, I’ve been working with corporate leadership teams, regulators, and senior government officials to help make sense of the current geopolitical turbulence—and what it means for their strategy.

In the margins, I’ve been listening—at international forums, in private conversations, and through the noise online. What’s emerging is a world shifting faster than most organisations are structurally prepared for. From AI disruption to trade realignments to the rise of bots over humans on the internet, the pace is accelerating.

Here’s what I’ve taken from it.

What I’ve Learned About the Context

• “A crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.” (Dornbusch’s Law)

• The UK’s living standards are now lower than during the Global Financial Crisis—reportedly the worst since the Industrial Revolution.

• According to Dario Amodei, CEO of Anthropic, AI could eliminate up to 50% of entry-level white-collar jobs and push US unemployment to 10–20% within five years (while still growing the economy and curing cancer). Link here

• Bots now outnumber humans online: For the first time in a decade, bots make up over 51% of total web traffic. (Imperva)

• Cybercrime is scaling like a tech sector: “If cybercrime were a legitimate industry, it would be the third-largest economy in the world, twice the size of Germany and looking to catch up both the US and China.” Estimated global cost this year: $10.5 trillion. (@John Fokker, @Trellix)

• For the first time this month, two Chinese aircraft carriers entered the Pacific, east of Japan, for drills. It’s a clear indication of China’s increasing ability to extend power beyond its shores.

• "The Atlantic replaced the Mediterranean in the 16th century. Now the Indo-Pacific is replacing the Atlantic." (Walter Russell Mead, GMF Brussels Forum)

• Europe-US: “We’ve been growing apart [from the US]. Now we’re growing up.” (Kaja Kallas, VP of the European Commission). While this can be seen in terms of the rise in defence spending agreed at the recent NATO meeting, I remain more sceptical that Europe is going to really step up absent further external forcing events. 

• Three trends to watch in the Middle East: i) the small states suddenly matter (eg Qatar); ii) the region is boiling (the original grievances remain, the populations are asking for a new social contract and the leaders aren't listening) and ready for another Arab Spring; and iii) There's a shift to looking east (eg: Malaysia and other Asian nations are investing heavily in the region).  

• Have we become complacent about democracy? We once talked about a peace dividend and we took it for granted. Are we now doing the same for the democratic dividend?

• China’s trade surplus is booming: 

  • Up 40% year-on-year, now nearing $500 billion—reinforcing China’s centrality in global supply chains (FT).

  • EV disruption continues: Despite European tariffs, Chinese carmakers doubled their share of the EU market year-on-year—mostly via EVs and hybrids (JATO Dynamics).

  • Drone dominance: China produces 70–80% of the world’s commercial drones and owns nearly 80% of drone R&D patents (Drone Industry Insights, Mathys & Squire).

• Energy chokepoint: One-third of global seaborne oil passes daily through the Strait of Hormuz.

What I’ve Learned About People

• Teaching isn’t learning: “If you teach a man anything, he will never learn.” (George Bernard Shaw) – A reminder to facilitate discovery rather than download knowledge.

What I’ve Learned About Myself

• Let go of the small stuff: I’ve been reminding myself to hold onto things lightly—especially minor frustrations. Staying rooted in today, not yesterday or tomorrow.

• Stress is often self-imposed: Much of what I experience as stress comes from my own patterns—deadlines, expectations, drive. That means I can choose to change it. And that’s liberating.

If you haven’t yet seen the TEDx talk, you can watch it here. And if you’ve also been reflecting on how to adapt - whether to stress, geopolitics, AI, or just shifting waves of business - I’d love to hear how you’re approaching it.

Best wishes,

Xenia

June Insights 2025.

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