LEADERSHIP IN A VUCA WORLD: DISTINGUISHING SIGNAL FROM NOISE
- Wickett Advisory - Xenia Wickett
- Jun 25
- 5 min read
LEADERSHIP IN A VUCA WORLD: DISTINGUISHING SIGNAL FROM NOISE
We live in a time that defies simple labels. Change feels relentless and complexity is the norm. Former Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau made a shocking and yet accurate statement, “The world is changing faster than ever before—and yet this is the slowest it will ever be.”
It’s a VUCA world - volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous - and the leadership approaches that served us in the past are not enough now.
This isn’t just acceleration - it’s a fundamental shift. Change is no longer linear, if it ever was. It’s exponential. The rules that governed global business, politics and economics no longer hold as they once did.
For leaders, that makes clarity and focus not just helpful, but essential. The ability to distinguish signal from noise - to understand what truly moves the needle - is now core to strategy.
Foundational Shifts: What’s Changed Beneath Our Feet?
When we talk about change today, we’re not just talking about headlines. We’re talking about foundational shifts in how the world is structured.
· Global institutions are fraying. Trust in organisations like the UN, WTO and WHO is eroding. The WTO’s dispute settlement system has been paralysed since 2019. Fewer than half of OECD publics trust the UN (Pew, 2023).
· Multilateralism is giving way to ad-hoc “coalitions of the willing.” Mini-lateral and regional groupings are filling the gap left by a more transactional and interest-focused US foreign policy.
· Fractured trust. In 2024, 66% of Europeans no longer viewed the US as a reliable long-term partner (ECFR). Societies around the world are questioning whether the democratic system is delivering. Supply chains are regionalising. Global interdependence—once seen as stabilising—is now a source of risk. Semiconductors, rare earths, critical minerals are being weaponised.
· The energy transition is shifting power in new strategic directions. Fossil fuels still matter (providing power to the states that own them), but the geopolitical contest has expanded to include battery technology, clean energy, and critical minerals. Over 60 countries now have national strategies for critical minerals (IEA, 2024). Green subsidies—from the US Inflation Reduction Act to the EU Green Deal—are reshaping investment flows and creating new forms of competition.
These shifts don’t mean a descent into chaos. But they do mean higher friction: more cost, more effort, more trade-offs. Whether navigating Red Sea disruptions or adapting to fragmented regulatory regimes, resilience carries a premium.
Systems in Strain: Economics, Climate, Society
The systems we rely on—economic, environmental, political—are under stress.
· Economic headwinds. China’s growth is slowing. Europe is stagnating. The US has added over $10 trillion to its federal debt since 2020, bringing it to $34.5 trillion in early 2025—a 40% increase in five years. Rising bond yields are already affecting the cost of capital and long-term planning. And all this is before tariffs.
· Climate displacement. In 2024 alone, over 43 million people were displaced by 11,000+ extreme weather events (IDMC). This isn’t a future risk; it’s a current operating reality.
· ESG and DEI shifting ground. Societal expectations vary by region. Europe pushes forward with ESG regulation; the US sees political backlash. Yet a majority of CEOs say ESG is critical to long-term value creation (KPMG and Gartner). In practice, businesses still value diversity, resilience and sustainability—because these are strategic choices, not just ethical ones.
· Demographic transfer. The majority of European and Asian states are shrinking and aging. Meanwhile, the African population is growing at 2.3% annually (and is rich is raw materials). The average age in Africa and the Middle East is 19 and 27 respectively, far below that of Europe (44) and North America (39).
· Technological transformation. AI offers both risk and reward. McKinsey (2024) estimates AI could add up to $4.4 trillion annually to the global economy. But with the upside comes disinformation, security risks, and the need for rapid adaptation. As communication becomes noisier, the ability to cut through it becomes a strategic edge.
None of this points to decline. But it does demand strategic clarity. We are not in stasis—we’re in dynamic reconfiguration. And leaders will need to make bets. You cannot hedge everything.
Where the Abstract Becomes Concrete: Today’s Hotspots
These structural trends come to life in the world’s hot spots. War, climate, humanitarian crisis—these are not “over there” issues. They affect supply chains, consumer sentiment, energy prices, risk premiums and political stability.
These events can have isolated impact. But they can also be additive, together imposing a greater burden on societies, states and organisations. And they increasingly overlap with your strategic decisions.
So What? The Leadership Imperative
In this environment, leaders cannot afford to be reactive. You need a different skill set—one that sees complexity without being paralysed by it.
Here are seven shifts I believe leaders must embrace:
Distinguish signal from noise. What actually moves the needle for your business, your team, your sector? Pay attention to trend vs oscillation. Identify patterns. Don’t be distracted by noise.
Bring in external voices. Broaden your inputs. Seek challenge. Fresh perspectives uncover blind spots and open up new opportunities.
Stress test your assumptions. Use scenarios. What if Taiwan goes hot? What if clean energy becomes a binding constraint? What if your market splits along regulatory lines? Conduct simulations.
Adapt, integrate, iterate. The organisations that thrive will not be the ones that try to stop the volatility but the ones that adapt to it. Action must be embedded across all levels – not bolted on, but built in. And then iterate. The world is changing fast; you have to be able to move with it.
Decentralise authority. There is no one-size-fits-all playbook. Empower local decision-making while holding the centre with clarity of purpose and values.
Build resilience. In supply chains, talent pipelines, financing, and reputational risk. Optionality matters.
Lead actively. Be proactive. This is not a time for passive management. The cost of inaction is rising.
Final Thought: Clarity Is a Strategic Asset
We are not headed for collapse. But we are living through a reordering. And in such times, leadership isn’t about certainty - it’s about judgment.
If you lead a business, a team, or an organisation, you don’t need to predict the future. But you do need to read the landscape, frame better questions, and place smarter bets.
Reach out if you would like to talk about how you can do this better.
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