THE US AND THE WORLD: WHICH WAY NEXT?

The US and the World: Which Way Next? Xenia Wickett - Wickett Advisory

For the past 80 years, the United States has acted as the democratic, military and economic anchor of the global system. Reagan called it the “city on a hill.” Along with allies, its norms, standards and institutions shaped the world in which we have operated.

As we look ahead, that certainty is gone. We are watching a country in deep transition — one that could take divergent paths over the coming years.

What might lie ahead. What’s signal, what’s noise — and how do we plan wisely for both?

Here are two guiderail scenarios - plausible futures for the United States. And the implications for business, regulation and global stability.

The first scenario is a rapid decline — an America that is brittle, divided, and looking inward.

The signs are clear. Economic uncertainty is rising. US federal debt has jumped by 40% since 2020. Bond markets are uneasy. The Fed is boxed in politically. The dollar still holds, but its dominance as the reserve currency no longer feels guaranteed.

Politically, the divide is stark. Republicans are energised behind an exclusionary agenda (keep others out). Democrats, at least for now, appear fragmented and ineffective. Historical norms are being abandoned or actively reinterpreted. The recent deployment of the National Guard in Los Angeles, and the revival of older immigration laws to justify modern crackdowns, are just two examples.

Culturally, the US is going through a retrenchment. DEI, ESG, gender and reproductive rights are under sustained attack.

Institutional checks are weakening. Pressure is growing across federal agencies, the media, universities, and the judiciary. State-level divisions are intensifying, with progressive states like California pushing back in court — but also leading to a patchwork of legal and regulatory divergence that adds more uncertainty.

Foreign policy is transactional and short term and the perspective has narrowed. Under Trump it is driven by his personal relationships. Hard power – economic and military - is prioritised. Multilateral forums are being either undermined or ignored.

If this version of America dominates, the consequences for the world are stark.

Multilateralism weakens. Global norms fragment. Democracy recedes. We face a world with no single centre of gravity — replaced by coalitions of the willing, growing regional friction, and contested international law.

The ripple effects reach business quickly. Legal frameworks diverge. Predictability declines. Geopolitics rises to the top of the C-suite inbox, permanently.

The second scenario is more familiar — this is merely a democratic oscillation and a recalibrated America.

Here, institutions absorb the shocks and push back. Courts remain active. The 2026 midterms could see a Democratic House. Some corporate leaders continue to resist quietly. Progressive states experiment and innovate.

In this world, the US remains influential, though not hegemonic. Its alliances become more balanced — less about US dominance, more about shared burdens. Its economic and legal credibility is bruised, but not broken.

If this version of America reasserts itself, we see a degree of stabilisation. Norms begin to hold again. Multilateral forums could regain relevance. EU–US alignment becomes possible on areas like tech regulation, ESG standards and trade governance.

The world remains multipolar — but becomes more navigable.

Which future rises?

We don’t yet know which future will play out. But it’s worth saying: right now, while still the less likely, it steadily becoming more so.

The key signals I’m watching are around judicial decisions, institutional resilience, and congressional dynamics.

What does this mean for senior business leaders?

It means preparing for both possibilities. Building structures that can weather either path. Thinking ahead to where your greatest regulatory or reputational exposures lie — and where there might be unexpected advantages in a more regional, more complex world.

For general counsels in particular, your role is evolving. You are no longer just managing legal risk. Increasingly, you are being asked to act as a geopolitical advisor to your board and leadership team — helping shape not only how your organisation responds, but how it sees the road ahead.

If you’re navigating these issues, I’d love to hear how you’re approaching them.

What are you watching? What’s shifted? And what gives you confidence as the world gets more complex?

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