MAY 2025 INSIGHTS

Geopolitics. The World — Wickett Advisory

May 2025 Insights

This month I’ve been focused on what I am trying to achieve, for myself and my business. My behaviour would suggest that I value, and am solving for, being busy. Yet my brain knows that such busyness doesn’t always serve me or my clients. And my heart longs to invest more time in learning and thinking. Changing a lifetime narrative, that busyness = quality, is hard.

Meanwhile, I am participating in conversations two or three times a week debating whether we are currently at a massive geopolitical and/or geoeconomic pivot point or whether this is merely a temporary oscillation. The probability it’s the former has risen considerably this month.

Amidst the full days, I’ve had some informed and thoughtful conversations with corporate leadership teams, senior UK officials, a network of European regulators care of @EY, and of course my coaching clients. June looks particularly intense (see my point above) and I’m beginning to work on some exciting new projects lined up in August.

Here’s what stood out for me this month.

What I’ve Learned About the Context

AI and power: @Eric Schmidt explains the ‘San Francisco Consensus’ saying that “Computers will be smarter than the sum of humans within six years.” (Artificial Super Intelligence) "They won’t have to listen to us anymore,". This short video is a ‘must watch’. Thanks @Scott Spencer for flagging. (Instagram link)
Revenue slow-down: For the five years ending in 2023, S&P 500 firms grew revenues on average by 6.9% annually. In 2024, that figure is down to 4%—the lowest in a non-recession year this century. And, according to the experts, it’s not just a blip. (@Korn Ferry, link here)
China's consumption gap: Consumption accounts for just 40% of China’s GDP vs 70% in the US. That gap reflects deeper differences: in China the expectation is that citizens will need to provide for themselves as they age, whereas in the US, the state’s robust welfare programme steps in.
Geopolitical insurance: China’s trade surplus is not just economic—it’s geopolitical insurance. By ensuring others rely on it (while minimising its own dependencies), it builds resilience and power. Trade is becoming a core tool of power politics. (A topic that’s going to be central to a course I’m co-leading for @alpbach in August.)
Stability without a hegemon? A recent Foreign Affairs essay argues that global order depends on a single dominant power. I’m not sure I agree. A multipolar world may be harder to manage, but it’s more stable—no one actor can topple the system. Many legs make a sturdier stool. The essay though is worth a read.
Scientists on the move: In a recent poll, around 75% of US-based scientists are considering emigrating, with Canada and Europe top destinations. (Nature)
Tariff friction: Shipping costs from China to the US jumped ~30% after the temporary tariff deal was agreed between the US and China (driven by the anticipation of a flood of trade to take advantage of this moment). This is a taster of the effects of uncertainty even if the tariffs aren’t imposed in the end.

What I’ve Learned About People

Ambidextrous cultures outperform: Organisations do better when they balance their dominant cultural mode with its opposite—conformity and process with individualism, improvisation with cohesion and loyalty. The trick is to expand the organisation’s range by identifying the dominant culture and then diversifying it. (@David Epstein, Range: How Generalists Triumph in a Specialised World – brilliant book)
Creativity Thrives in a Positive Mood: Evidence indicates that we’re more creative when we’re in a good mood. If you’re tackling a complex problem—get happy first. You’re more likely to achieve a better outcome.
Curiosity reshapes the brain: It boosts neuroplasticity, helps rewire itself during change, and thus is a perfect cognitive state when dealing with transitions (ie; in today’s context). It can allow you to reframe uncertainty as an invitation rather than threat. (Anne-Laure Le Cunff, Big Think)
The price of anger: "How much more grievous are the consequences of anger than the causes of it." (Marcus Aurelius)
An open heart sees further: “An open heart allows us to see and understand in ways that our cognition just doesn’t.” (Edna Murdoch & Jackie Arnold, Full Spectrum Supervision)

What I’ve Learned About Myself

Busyness ≠ Best work: I associate 'doing my best' with running at full pelt, and as I grew up believing that I should always do my best, that means I keep solving for doing more. But my most impactful work often happens when I do less. So what should I, as an individual and business, be solving for if not busyness? Today’s answer - happiness and impact – what can I do that will make me happy and how can I deliver it to have the greatest impact for my clients. Doing more is rarely the answer. Next step – finding tools to remind me of this.
Joy ≠ Work: Investing in myself isn’t indulgent—it’s necessary: I’ve been so focused in the business and on the business that I’ve neglected me. This week, I realised I haven’t made time to read, to join coaching training, to learn. And it’s making me less happy—and less effective. As my best friend pointed out, if I’m not supporting myself, I’m not serving my clients properly either. Why do I deprioritise it? Partly because I’m busy, but partly because I genuinely enjoy it—and somewhere in my brain, I still think that if something feels joyful, it can’t count as work. Sophie had a helpful suggestion: move reading from the ‘joy’ category to the ‘business critical’ category. It’s not the full solution, but it’s a start. More rewiring required. (Thanks @Sophie Pratt)
Managing the success wave: I have a client who kept moved the goalposts for themselves. It resonated with me. While my business is doing well, when I have slower weeks (even if from a high base) it starts to niggle. Success comes in waves – the work comes in not letting my emotions be driven by that wave form.