THE CASE FOR OPTIMISM: A STRATEGIC ASSET IN TURBULENT TIMES

Optimism

The Case for Optimism: A Strategic Asset in Turbulent Times

I’ve noticed a curious pattern in the rooms I work in — whether in war rooms analysing global risk, boardrooms navigating business transformation, or coaching sessions with senior leaders facing tough personal decisions. When the stakes are high and the context volatile, many people focus on the risk. Worst-case scenarios dominate the conversation. Downside thinking takes over.

That makes sense — to a point. But what if our obsession with risk is costing us something more important?

It’s time to talk about optimism. Not the fluffy kind. Not delusion or denial. But serious, grounded, strategic optimism. The kind that helps us see possibility amidst uncertainty. The kind that fuels bold decisions and creative action. The kind that helps you lead.

Because here’s the truth: optimism is not the opposite of realism. It’s part of it.

Why Optimism Is Strategic

Alexander Stubb, now Prime Minister of Finland, has often argued that optimism is a responsibility — not just a mindset. In a world facing overlapping crises, we simply can’t afford the costs of institutional pessimism. We have an obligation to be optimistic. The world needs it.

And he’s right.

We know from decades of research in psychology, neuroscience, and behavioural economics that a positive mindset widens our lens. Optimistic people are more creative, more resilient, and better at problem-solving. They don’t ignore risks — they just don’t get paralysed by them.

I see this in geopolitical conversations with corporate clients all the time. The moment I mention a shift in US-China relations or energy prices, someone in the room says: “Yes, but what’s the worst-case scenario?” And of course that’s a reasonable question. But if it’s the only question we ask, we miss the opportunity in change.

Volatility is the norm now — not the exception. Leaders who focus only on risk are flying blind to the openings that emerge in times of disruption.

Catastrophising and Its Consequences

Coaches have a term for one of the patterns I see most often in leadership conversations: catastrophising. It’s the mental habit of leaping straight from a challenge to a disaster. “If X happens, we’ll lose everything.” “If I say this, I’ll destroy the relationship.” “If we enter that market, we’ll fail.”

But dig into it, and you’ll often find that the real consequences are modest — sometimes merely inconvenient. The damage is more imagined than real. And in the meantime, leaders lose hours (and health) to cortisol-fuelled spirals.

Worse, catastrophising often kills the very instincts we most need: courage, experimentation, long-term investment. We freeze. We wait. We play small.

But what if we didn’t? What if we could approach challenge not with fear, but with possibility?

Optimism Is Not Naivety — It’s a Skill

One of the most important things I’ve learned from coaching is this: optimism can be cultivated. It’s not just a trait you’re born with; it’s a muscle you build. And when leaders train themselves to use it well, the results are powerful.

Because optimism isn’t about ignoring downside. It’s about keeping your eyes on the upside as well.

Think about great investors. They manage risk ruthlessly — but they’re ultimately betting on potential. Great entrepreneurs know that most start-ups fail — and they try anyway. Great political leaders take office in tough times — and imagine (and sometimes implement towards) the potential.

Strategic optimism asks: What could go right? What if we’re more ready than we think? What if this pressure point is actually the beginning of a transformation?

That’s not wishful thinking. That’s leadership.

What You Can Do — As a Leader, and as a Person

Here are a few ways to cultivate more productive optimism in your work and your life:

1. Interrupt the spiral: When you or your team start catastrophising, stop and ask: “What’s the actual worst-case scenario here? And then what? And then what?” Nine times out of ten, you’ll find the real consequences are manageable. And that clarity creates calm.

2. Reframe the context: In moments of volatility, ask a second-order question: “Where are the opportunities here?” What shifts in customer behaviour, competitor weakness, or regulatory change could create advantage? Don’t just mitigate risk — spot possibility.

3. Model the mindset: If you’re a senior leader, your attitude sets the tone. Your teams watch how you respond to uncertainty. Show them that it’s OK to acknowledge fear — and still take bold steps. Show them that optimism is not just allowed — it’s expected.

4. Start each meeting with focus on the upside: Open up your team’s minds at the beginning of each meeting to the upside potential. What’s going right in the organisation or their lives or the day. This will put them in the right frame to be more creative. 

5. Surround yourself with diverse thinkers: Optimism is easier when you’re not stuck in an echo chamber of risk-averse thinking. Bring in people who think differently, who challenge the prevailing mood, who are energised by the future rather than exhausted by the present.

6. Take action: Nothing fuels optimism like momentum. When in doubt, move. Even a small action — a call, a pilot, an experiment, a draft plan — can break the spell of paralysis and spark a sense of agency.

Final Thought

The world doesn’t need more pessimists. It needs clear-eyed, courageous leaders who can hold both the challenge and the possibility. Who can name the risks, but also chart a path forward. Who understand that optimism is not an indulgence — it’s an essential part of strategy.

That’s true whether you’re navigating geopolitics, steering a business, or working out your next career move.

In a complex world, optimism isn’t soft. It’s sharp. And the best leaders use it every day.

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