top of page

AN INDEPENDENT PERSPECTIVE ON THE US ELECTION

Writer's picture: xeniawickettxeniawickett

Updated: Nov 1, 2024


Kamala Harris v Donald Trump
An Independent Perspective on the 2024 US Election

US elections are notoriously unpredictable. I saw this firsthand during my time at the White House—back in 2004, we got it wrong. Fast forward to 2016, when most forecasts pointed to Clinton, only to see Trump clinch victory. These experiences remind me to approach each election cycle with humility and a willingness to embrace the unexpected.

 

As we look ahead to 2024, it’s critical to analyse the election independently, cutting through the noise. Here are four areas to focus on:

 

The Dynamics That Will Decide the Election

 

In the US, it’s not the popular vote that determines the outcome—2000 and 2016 proved this. The real battleground lies in a few swing states, notably Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, North Carolina, Arizona, Georgia and Michigan. These states will be decisive, with polls today suggesting razor-thin leads for Harris in the Midwest, while Trump has narrow advantages in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina.

 

Turnout is going to be key—2020 saw a record turnout of two-thirds of eligible voters, but historically it hovers around 50-60%. In 2020, just 44,000 votes in three states determined the election result, and in 2016, 80,000 votes did the same. These slim margins show how even the smallest movement can shift the outcome dramatically.

 

Several factors could move the needle:

  • Abortion rights which is on the ballot in 10 states, including two of the swing states, Arizona and Nevada, and will get more women out to vote democrat.

  • Fundraising: Harris and the Democrats are outpacing Trump’s campaign financially—by more than double from January to August this year ($678m vs. $309m). Harris also holds a $100m advantage in cash on hand. The DNC is out-raising the RNC. But in the SuperPAC stakes, the republicans have the advantage.

  • October Surprises: Economic shocks such as war in the Middle East leading to spikes in gas prices and other unlikely but possible events (such as Trump having to drop out for health reasons) in the weeks before the election could fundamentally tip the balance.

  • Proxy influencers: Elites such as Elon Musk (Trump supporter) and Taylor Swift (Harris) also have the potential to shift certain voter segments, especially younger and more disengaged voters, sending them to the polls in unpredicted ways.

 

Policy Differences: What Matters for Business

 

As someone who’s worked across both the public and corporate sectors, I know that the devil is in the details. Yet, at this stage, specifics are fluid – don’t trust the rhetoric. What we do know are the broader philosophical divides between Harris and Trump, which will set the direction of travel for US policy.

 

  • Regulatory Environment: Trump will pursue deregulation, particularly in environmental sectors, while Harris will likely maintain Biden’s stronger regulatory oversight. Expect a lighter regulatory touch on tech from her but potentially stricter environmental controls.

  • Economy and Markets: Both candidates are moving toward protectionist policies, significant for the international business community. Trump leans more on market-driven, trickle-down economics, whereas Harris favours a more interventionist, distributive approach. Trump will double down on traditional energy industries, while Harris has her eyes on supporting future-oriented sectors like renewables.

  • Global Trade and China: The bipartisan consensus on China’s threat is clear—Trump has floated 60% tariffs, while Harris too will maintain a tough stance, albeit within a more structured diplomatic framework. Trump’s approach to trade will likely remain transactional and short-term, with tariffs on both allies and rivals, while Harris will aim for long-term relationship building. Implications for supply chains? Continued regionalisation and a rethinking of global dependencies.

For business leaders, these policy differences matter. They signal where to watch for opportunities—and risks—in sectors like energy, tech, and global trade.

 

The Aftermath: What Happens After November 5th?

 

No matter the outcome, we should expect legal challenges and delays, particularly around issues like mail-in ballots and voter rolls in key states. However, significant and drawn out unrest is less likely—though that assessment could worsen if the race is particularly close.

 

If the predictions of a split government hold (Republican take the Senate, Democrats the House), policy-making will be slow. Harris, if she wins, will face major challenges getting her cabinet appointments through a Republican-controlled Senate. This kind of political gridlock will restrict the scope of both candidates’ policy ambitions, particularly on domestic issues.

 

For businesses, a split government could mean more policy volatility and fewer significant reforms, requiring extra caution when forecasting long-term business trends.

 

The Crypto Factor: An Election Issue for the First Time

 

For the first time, crypto has become a political issue of its own. The industry has raised a massive $170m for a super-PAC, the largest single-issue PAC in history. Crypto regulation has matured from being a fringe concern to becoming part of the mainstream political discourse. While crypto won’t swing the election, the industry’s success in educating congress will be key in the next four years as the future of its regulation will largely be determined by this part of government rather than the president. Both Harris and Trump are expected to engage with the industry—though Elizabeth Warren and her progressive bloc could again prove an obstacle for Harris.

 

Conclusion

 

This election is too close to call, and any predictions are shaky at best. If we avoid an October Surprise, Harris may have a slight edge, but anything can change in the weeks ahead.

 

For business leaders, the real takeaway is this: expect volatility. A divided government means slow progress on policy, filled with compromises and a “two steps forward, one step back” dynamic. It’s going to be a long game. But one thing seems certain—crypto regulation is set to move forward in the next four years.

Recent Posts

See All

Comments

Rated 0 out of 5 stars.
No ratings yet

Add a rating
bottom of page