For 80 years, the US anchored the global system. Now, uncertainty reigns. Will America turn inward, fuelling division and instability, or recalibrate and remain a key—if less dominant—global player? For business leaders, preparing for both futures is essential as geopolitics becomes a central concern. Which path will rise, and how will you navigate the complexity ahead?

The pace and pattern of change today demands more than traditional leadership instincts. In a world that is volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous, clarity is no longer a luxury—it’s a strategic asset. This short piece explores the structural shifts I believe every senior leader should understand—from fracturing global trust and economic headwinds, to demographic divergence and the strategic implications of the energy transition.