Multilateral institutions still matter - but they no longer monopolise influence. Increasingly, power is exercised through coalitions of the willing, and that changes everything for long-term strategic decisions.

February reinforced a theme that has been building for months: divergence. Between institutions and individuals. Between fragility and resilience. Between those who lean into volatility and those who retreat from it. At the geopolitical level, systems are more brittle. At the organisational level, leadership pipelines look thinner. At the personal level, responses to instability are increasingly split. The question running through all of this: who adapts — and how? What follo