What's Going On In The US?
It’s been a month since Trump took office, and I’ve just returned from a week on the East Coast—New York, Miami, and Washington, D.C. Here are my first impressions.
Unsurprisingly, views on the new administration vary widely. But some common themes emerge.
New York: Optimism with an Expiry Date
Financiers, bankers and corporate leaders are optimistic—at least for the next 12 to 18 months. They see deregulation across technology, energy, the environment, and social policies (among others) as a catalyst for innovation, lower costs, and fewer bureaucratic hurdles. Growth feels inevitable.
And yet, there’s a hesitation. There are consequences to all this. Here, concerns creep in: inflation, tariffs, disrupted supply chains, declining security, collapse of global norms and standards and possible responses from allies. The consensus: seize opportunities now, because 2026 and beyond will be much tougher.
Miami: Unrestrained Enthusiasm (With a Hint of Caution)
At a major investor conference in Miami, enthusiasm for Trump’s policies was almost unfiltered. At least one attendee wore an “I love oil” badge. Support was overt, energetic, and full-throated.
Yet even here, a more measured undercurrent ran beneath the surface. Some acknowledged—quietly—that dismantling institutions like intelligence, defence, and USAID creates a period of profound vulnerability before anything new can take their place. This, could bring danger. Speaking openly against the tide? Not worth the risk. It reminded me of conversations I had in Kazakhstan a decade ago, where people would check over their shoulder before answering my questions.
Washington: Shock and Uncertainty
In Washington, the mood was evidently different—fear, trepidation, and disbelief. Even some long-time Republicans, running right-leaning organisations, found themselves blindsided. Many had been assured they would be protected. They weren’t. The pace of change was staggering.
Still, there were the merest hints from a few voices of the need to look ahead. While the method of dismantling institutions was extreme, the need for change had been clear for years. Even democrats, who would have taken a very different path, knew reform was necessary. Their role now was to think about how to establish new structures, models or processes that were fit for today and tomorrow.
This administration, particularly with the Musk approach, is focused on destruction. Rebuilding is not the priority. When I met Peter Thiel and his team some years ago, they were explicit—breaking the system mattered; what came after was not something to worry about now. It’s the same playbook as today. The real thinking about the future may have to happen outside of government.
Key Takeaways
America has an extraordinary ability to reinvent itself. I’ve long said its greatest asset is its capacity to fall, get up, and try again.
In line with this, do not fall into straight-line thinking. i.e.; that Trump 2.0 would pick up from Trump 1.0 or that the current Trump/Musk activity will continue at the current rate or impact. This too will change.
The strategy of using cruelty (i.e.; demanding overseas personnel return home within 30 regardless of personal constraints (e.g.: children in school), shutting people out of offices from one day to the next etc.) is deliberate. The administration’s goal is to remove as many people from government as possible, using methods that are as ruthless as they are effective. In Washington, where only around 15% of voters backed Trump, he is right to believe that the bureaucracy is going to resist where it can.
America is extremely vulnerable right now. Between the destruction and rebuilding lies a period of profound insecurity.
If America can weather this, it may emerge stronger (so too might the world – thoughts for another time). But for now, the best strategy is the one I heard in New York: make hay while the sun shines. Trump is mortgaging the future for short-term gains. Security, international norms, supply chain stability, and economic health are all declining. The cost of doing business will rise.
For the business sector, the window of opportunity is open. But it won’t stay that way for long.
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