WHAT DID I LEARN IN MARCH - ABOUT THE CONTEXT, PEOPLE AND MYSELF

Xenia Wickett - Wickett Advisory

Two quick reflections to kick off this month:

On geopolitics – Forecasting long-term global trends is increasingly futile. The divergence between best- and worst-case scenarios is too vast. Yet, while the West obsesses over US retrenchment, China’s rise, and Europe’s struggle for autonomy, much of the Global South (or Global Middle if you prefer) is simply adapting. At the Raisina Dialogue, the non-aligned countries such as India, Indonesia, Brazil, and South Africa weren’t waiting around, shocked by change—they were getting on with it. There’s a lesson in that.

On the personal front – This “no-plan” year is proving to be one of my best. By staying open, I’ve stumbled into some extraordinary opportunities (a TEDx talk on how to ask powerful questions, for one). A reminder: sometimes, the most interesting doors open when you’re not knocking.

What I’ve Learned About the Context

• Trust is shifting: Vertical trust (ie: in authority figures and institutions) is collapsing to be replaced by lateral trust (peer groups and local communities) (Gillian Tett, FT).

• Corporate inertia: 70% of global CEOs are only now launching their post-pandemic transformation strategies. (Gartner) What took them so long?

• The UK as a services superpower: Professional and business services now make up 2.8% of UK GDP—the highest share globally. (In the US it is 2.4%.)

• Americans see the world as an action movie; Europeans, as a documentary: (Bruno Macaes, History Has Begun: The Dawn of a New America). Bruno argues that America is becoming a new global civilisation, distinct from Europe, that pursues escapism. While I might not agree with the detail, the concept of US and European divergence is, for now, real. But it is not the first time. Do not assume straight line thinking.  

• Innovation power shift: In the 1960s, the US government funded 70% of R&D. Today, the private sector does. Federally backed R&D as a percentage of GDP has been cut in half over the last 60 years. Meanwhile, China’s state-backed research is growing 6x faster than America’s (Foreign Affairs).

• China’s manufacturing, tech and innovation dominance: China’s share of global manufacturing has surged from 4.9% (1995) to 32% (2023)—more than the US and its allies combined. According to WIPO, in 2023 46.8% of all new patents come from China (17.2% from the US). China is the leading nation in 37 of the 44 technologies tracked (ASPI Critical Technology Tracker). (NOTE: Phenomenally interesting website from ASPI).

• Critical Minerals: Critical minerals recycling is set to grow 400% by 2040, reducing reliance on primary extraction.

• Tech has widened the gap, not closed it: 35% of the world is still offline. Instead of an equalizer, tech has become a new axis of inequality, between and within nations.

• The EU is a process, not a state: After 30 years of a “holiday from history,” Europeans have failed to take Americans along as to why this alliance is so important.

What I’ve Learned About People

• Be ready to transform but do not provoke, illuminate the darkness of ignorance but do not blind. (Tao Te Ching, v.58)

• How to give good feedback: 1) Describe what you observed, factually and non-judgementally; 2) Name the issue, using specific examples; 3) Explain its impact, emotionally and/or in business terms; 4) Invite input and listen; 5) Let it breathe—give time for processing; and 6) Plan what needs to be done in response.

• Predictability is a trade-off: “The moment you become predictable, you’ve handed something over to the other side.” (S. Jaishankar, FT). Correct, but it’s worth noting that trusting relationships are also built on reliability.

• “Life is full of what-ifs. Sometimes they happen. Many times they don’t. You don’t spend life worrying about what-ifs. You spend your life preparing for what-ifs.” Also Jaishankar (worth reading the full FT interview as it was brilliant) 

• Double-loop learning: The best leaders don’t just ask, “Did we do this right?” but also, “Are we doing the right thing?” (Thank you, Paul)

• Leading: Your most important team isn’t the one you lead—it’s the one you’re on. (Thank you, Peter-Andries)

What I’ve Learned About Myself

• Openness invites opportunity: Lately, I’ve been approaching conversations differently—no set agenda, no hard sell—just listening, being curious, and sharing what I do. And time and again, unexpected opportunities have emerged. It’s not that I shouldn’t be intentional about business, but I’m realising that some of the most valuable connections come when I’m not actively looking for them. There’s something about being relaxed and open that draws people in.

• I can be too prescriptive: In my desire sometimes to moderate a high-energy, engaging conversation, I can miss the insights that come from going deeper. I need to approach discussions with a more open mind, allowing space for unexpected ideas rather than steering too narrowly. In solving one problem, I risk creating another.

• Growth happens outside the comfort zone – The best learning moments come when I take risks, not when I play it safe.

What’s resonating with you this month? I would love to hear your thoughts.

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